NextGEMS is a European research project that will develop and apply a new generation of global coupled Storm-Resolving Earth System Models (SR-ESMs) to the study of anthropogenic climate change. The project started on 1 September 2021 and is funded by the European Commission’s H2020 program. The NextGEMS consortium is made up of 26 institutes from 14 countries (Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Senegal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the UK).
SR-ESMs are distinguished by their fine, 3 km, grid in the atmosphere and ocean. This allows a more physical representation of atmospheric and oceanic circulation systems, including their coupling to Earth-system processes such as the carbon, nutrients, water and atmospheric particulate (aerosol) cycles. NextGEMS will develop two prototypes SR-ESMs into production systems and produce multi- decadal (30 y) projections of future climate change. Improved resolution is expected to reduce biases and enhance the realism of these simulations. Ensembles of simulations will address scientific puzzles such as the impact of convective organization on climate sensitivity, the magnitude of aerosol forcing, and the changes in extremes associated with tropical air-sea interaction (including the African Monsoon and Atlantic Hurricanes) and land-surface interaction in the mid-latitudes (dry-spells and links between hydrology and carbon).
By developing models that are structurally different than existing ones, NextGEMS will reshape perceptions of uncertainty and provide a basis for reassessing the risk global warming poses for society and ecology. By focusing on just two models, NextGEMS builds a European community of scientists and users around a technologically more ambitious modelling enterprise. By representing the scales of motion and driving forces of high impact weather globally, NextGEMS links more directly to applications. Knowledge coproduction projects focusing on how circulation influences both renewable energy production and marine nutrients will demonstrate how applications and downstream users can thus be directly integrated into the model development enterprise.
Sustainable management of human activities affecting Atlantic marine ecosystems is critical to maintain its health and to support the blue economy of the bordering countries. TRIATLAS will contribute to this by delivering knowledge of the current state and future changes of the Atlantic marine ecosystems. We achieve this through a basin-wide approach integrating research from the North and South, that closes critical knowledge gaps in the Tropical and South Atlantic which impede an understanding of the entire basin. We bring together an interdisciplinary team of marine ecologists, physical oceanographers, climate researchers, and social scientists from 34 different institutions in Europe, Africa, and South America, together with multisectoral and regional stakeholders. We will enhance knowledge of the marine ecosystems in key areas of the Atlantic using existing and pivotal new (physical, biological, societal) observations. Earth system, ecological, and socio-economic models and observations will be used to assess the cumulative impacts of (climatic, pollution, and fishing) pressures driving fluctuations in the marine ecosystem, and the potential for tipping point behavior and regime shifts. We will develop the first predictions of the marine-ecosystem for the next 40 years for the whole Atlantic, by combining state-of-the-art climate prediction and ecosystem models, with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, and by conducting socio-economic vulnerability assessments services, with stakeholder engagement. TRIATLAS will enhance capacity in marine ecosystems, oceanography, and climate research in countries bordering the South and Tropical Atlantic Ocean. There will be close cooperation and alignment with relevant European Commission services and the South-South Framework for Scientific and Technical Cooperation, as well as other relevant initiatives in the field. We will contribute to upscale cooperation around the Atlantic.