SOUTH AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC CLIMATE-BASED MARINE ECOSYSTEM PREDICTION FOR SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT (TRIATLAS)

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Triatlas Longnames V2Sustainable management of human activities affecting Atlantic marine ecosystems is critical to maintain its health and to support the blue economy of the bordering countries. TRIATLAS will contribute to this by delivering knowledge of the current state and future changes of the Atlantic marine ecosystems. We achieve this through a basin-wide approach integrating research from the North and South, that closes critical knowledge gaps in the Tropical and South Atlantic which impede an understanding of the entire basin. We bring together an interdisciplinary team of marine ecologists, physical oceanographers, climate researchers, and social scientists from 34 different institutions in Europe, Africa, and South America, together with multisectoral and regional stakeholders. We will enhance knowledge of the marine ecosystems in key areas of the Atlantic using existing and pivotal new (physical, biological, societal) observations. Earth system, ecological, and socio-economic models and observations will be used to assess the cumulative impacts of (climatic, pollution, and fishing) pressures driving fluctuations in the marine ecosystem, and the potential for tipping point behavior and regime shifts. We will develop the first predictions of the marine-ecosystem for the next 40 years for the whole Atlantic, by combining state-of-the-art climate prediction and ecosystem models, with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, and by conducting socio-economic vulnerability assessments services, with stakeholder engagement. TRIATLAS will enhance capacity in marine ecosystems, oceanography, and climate research in countries bordering the South and Tropical Atlantic Ocean. There will be close cooperation and alignment with relevant European Commission services and the South-South Framework for Scientific and Technical Cooperation, as well as other relevant initiatives in the field. We will contribute to upscale cooperation around the Atlantic.

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Predictability OF CLIMATE in the Atlantic sector (PRE4CAST)

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CGL2017-86415-R SPANISH MINISTRY OF SCIENCE, INNOVATION AND UNIVERSITIES

Image Pre4 CastThe aim of this project is to evaluate predictability of climate variability in the Atlantic Sector from interannual to multi-decadal time scales, providing an added value. Currently a great amount of data from reanalysis and prediction systems is available. Nevertheless, there is a need to further evaluate such data in a way that it provides robust information about climate predictability and its reproducibility in the operative systems, both at the subseasonal to seasonal and seasonal to decadal scales. Thus, our objectives are to pinpoint geographical regions where skill could be expected, to identify the sources for such skill and mechanisms that provide it, and the possible changes in predictability in time together with the causes for such changes. To do so, we propose a two-pronged approach based on 1) to investigate further the main predictability source for climate variability in the time scales of interest to the project, which include the ocean; and 2) to further develop special tools for research on the subject of climate predictability. These tools include, on the one hand, methodologies to search for potential predictability using statistical and dynamical models. On the other hand, we will improve the coupled atmosphere-ocean model we use to test our hypotheses regarding mechanisms. Specific topics to be addresses are the possible causes for changes in predictability along time associated with anomalies in the movements of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone. We propose to target two key regions in the Atlantic Sector to provide such predictability studies in which our group has shown broad experience: West Africa and Europe.